Economy - Gulf Insider

16 hours ago

How The Iranian Regime Destroyed Its Economy… Long Before The War

As negotiations edge towards a ceasefire, Tehran is trying to blame the country’s economic collapse on the war and foreign pressure. Yet the data tell a different story: Iran’s economy was already structurally broken before the war. Years of ideological policymaking, institutionalised corruption, and the militarisation of the economy have caused Iran’s economic ruin. Iran has been in a state of permanent economic emergency since at least 2018. Official inflation has remained above 40% year after year, destroying the country’s middle class. World Bank estimates show average inflation in the high 30s for most of the 2018–2025 period, with spikes of up to 60%, driven by massive currency depreciation and the constant monetisation of fiscal deficits. Monetary collapse and the myth of sanctions Since 2018, the rial has lost almost 95% of its value against the dollar, including a depreciation of more than 60% just between 2024 and 2025. This collapse stems from relentless money printing to finance uncontrolled budget deficits, a domestic loss of confidence in the currency, capital flight, and a regime that has treated the central bank as a mere financing arm of the state. All of this has happened while the government received billions of dollars from oil exports and enormous financial […]

4 days ago

Norway’s Oil Export Earnings Surge 68% Amid Iran War

Norway’s crude oil export earnings surged 67.9% year-on-year in March to a record 57.4 billion kroner ($6.1 billion), primarily driven by soaring global energy prices following the outbreak of the Iran war and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices averaged 1,014 kroner ($107.52) per barrel in March, the highest monthly average since September 2023. As Europe’s largest producer of oil and natural gas, the Scandinavian country exported 56.6 million barrels of crude oil in March, good for nearly 2 million barrels per day. Norway’s natural gas export revenues also climbed 19% to over 69 billion kroner as Europe sought alternative energy sources amid Middle East instability, helping the country record a trade surplus to the tune of 97.5 billion kroner, its highest level since January 2023. Norway’s windfall oil earnings did not escape the attention of U.S. President Donald Trump: “Europe is desperate for energy, and yet the United Kingdom refuses to open North Sea oil, one of the greatest fields in the world. Tragic!!!” he wrote in Truth Social. “Aberdeen should be booming. Norway sells its North Sea oil to the UK at double the price. They are making a fortune,” he added. North Sea oil and […]

4 days ago

IMF Warns Australia Set For One Of Highest Inflation Rates In Developed World

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says Australia is on track to have one of the highest inflation rates in the developed world. In the latest edition of its World Economic Outlook, the global lender said economies around the world “face repercussions [from] the direct impact of higher commodity prices, indirect second-order effects on inflation expectations—which tend to be especially sensitive to energy and food prices—and amplification effects coming from [conservative] sentiment in financial markets.” While the global economy had withstood “a series of shocks, yet another one—this time a military conflict engulfing the Middle East since the end of February—is testing this resilience,” the IMF warned. It predicted that Australia’s GDP growth would remain flat this year at 2025’s level of 2.0 percent and would fall in 2027 to 1.7 percent. Those figures are lower than previously projected, down from 2.1 percent for this year and 2.2 percent for next. While that will be a consideration as Treasurer Jim Chalmers drafts his next budget for delivery on May 12, even more alarming is the forecast for inflation, with the consumer price index at 4.0 percent this year and 3.2 percent in 2027. Those inflation figures exceed those of most advanced […]

5 days ago

India’s Central Bank Tells Oil Refiners To Stop Buying Dollars On Spot Market

India’s central bank has told state-run oil refiners to stop buying dollars in the spot market and instead use a government-backed credit line. That matters because oil is priced in dollars, and refiners are some of the biggest buyers of dollars in the country. When they all go into the market at once to pay for crude, it puts direct pressure on the rupee. That pressure has been building for weeks. The Reserve Bank of India is now stepping in to manage the demand. State refiners, including Indian Oil Corporation, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, and Bharat Petroleum Corporation, have been asked to draw dollars through a special credit facility routed via State Bank of India. Together, these companies account for about half of India’s 5.2 million barrels per day of refining capacity. Instead of going into the open market to buy dollars on the spot—meaning immediate purchase at current exchange rates—they can either access this credit line or buy dollars at a reference rate set by the central bank—potentially adding costs to India’s oil refiners. The goal is simple: reduce visible demand for dollars in the market. India’s currency has been under pressure. The rupee has fallen more than 3% this […]

6 days ago

UK Voters Call For Lower Taxes & Energy Bills As Economic Concerns Grow

British voters want Rachel Reeves to cut taxes and reduce energy costs in order to focus on growth, as a majority of people felt the UK economy was “poor”, new research has shown. Polling by Freshwater Strategy for the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA), a free market think tank, suggested that the vast majority of Brits wanted the Labour government to focus on economic growth more than it currently does. The findings back up the Labour government’s primary mission, which is to grow the UK economy. But respondents in a survey and focus groups suggested that voters supported small-state policies to deliver improved growth, as much of the public was confused about the measurements used by the government to track achievements. Polling found that 77 percent believed energy costs should be reduced, while 72 percent backed lower taxes for workers. A slightly lower portion, 66 per cent, backed tax cuts for businesses. When faced with a direct choice, Britons backed economic growth even if it led to some environmental damage, while most also wanted energy to be cheaper, even if it meant slower progress to net zero. Taxes and energy costs top Brits’ priorities Respondents to the survey of 3,000 voters were also […]

1 week ago

Bahrain Rolls Out Loan Relief And Liquidity Boost To Support Economy

Bahrain has moved to cushion households and businesses with a broad package of loan relief and liquidity support, aiming to keep credit flowing and ease repayment pressure during a period of economic strain. The Central Bank of Bahrain said retail banks and financing companies will offer customers the option to defer loan installments and credit card payments, covering both principal and interest, for a period of three months. The relief applies to individuals and corporates, giving borrowers temporary breathing space at a time when cash flow pressures remain elevated. Authorities framed the measures within a wider effort to support financial stability and sustain economic activity across sectors. Loan relief extended across sectors Banks have also been granted flexibility in how they treat affected loans during the deferral period. The move allows lenders to delay classification changes for customers who opt into the scheme, helping avoid an immediate rise in non-performing exposures across balance sheets. The scale of the domestic loan book highlights the reach of the programme, with total lending in Bahrain standing at around BHD11.3 billion. The relief therefore touches a significant portion of the economy, spanning retail borrowers, small businesses and larger corporates. Liquidity support expanded Alongside the […]

1 week ago

Saudi Arabia Enforces New Financial Control Law Across Public Sector

Saudi Arabia has brought its Financial Control Law into force, marking a step toward strengthening oversight across government entities and aligning public finance management with Vision 2030 objectives. The law, issued under a Council of Ministers resolution, replaces the previous Financial Representatives Law and introduces a broader framework designed to improve efficiency and accountability in how public funds are monitored. Alongside the rollout, the Ministry of Finance has issued implementing regulations that set out how the new system will be applied across ministries, agencies and state-linked entities. Wider scope across government The law applies to all entities funded through the Saudi budget, as well as those receiving government support, grants or subsidies. It also covers organisations that carry out procurement or project work on behalf of government bodies. This wider scope brings more activities under a unified oversight structure, covering both direct spending and outsourced operations linked to public funds. Multiple layers of oversight The framework introduces a mix of control approaches tailored to different types of entities and operations. These include direct control mechanisms, internal self-audit processes, digital monitoring tools and report-based reviews. The approach is designed to match oversight intensity with the scale and nature of each entity’s […]

1 week ago

France’s Gig-Economy Built On Migrant Labor As 99% Of Surveyed Delivery-Riders Are Foreign-Born, Two-Thirds Are Illegal

The Enquête report, based on a survey of more than 1,000 riders in Paris and Bordeaux, reveals that 98.7 percent of delivery couriers were born outside France, with nearly two-thirds lacking legal residency status, highlighting the extent to which the platform economy depends on a highly vulnerable migrant labor force. The workforce is dominated by recent arrivals from Africa, the majority of whom are not undertaking any other education or training in France. A total of 55.2 percent of riders come from West Africa, making it by far the largest group. A further 17.4 percent are from North Africa, while 4.6 percent come from other African countries, meaning that over 77 percent of all riders are African-born. By comparison, 16.6 percent are from Asia, 4 percent from the Middle East, and fewer than 2 percent from France. Most riders are new or relatively new arrivals. Some 98 percent of those surveyed had arrived in France after 2014, while 47.2 percent had arrived in the last five years. 🚴 « Ubérisation » et immigration clandestine La quasi-totalité des livreurs de repas pour des plateformes numériques sont des immigrés récents. ➡️ Deux tiers des livreurs sont en situation irrégulière. Les faits à retenir d’une étude inédite […]

2 weeks ago

IMF To Cut Global Growth Forecast Due To Mideast War

The International Monetary Fund will lower global growth forecasts due to the Middle East war, its chief said Thursday, warning of the conflict’s “scarring effects” despite a fragile ceasefire. “Even in a best case, there will be no neat and clean return to the status quo ante,” IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said. Georgieva said that — even in the fund’s “most hopeful scenario” — spiraling energy costs, infrastructure damage, supply disruptions and a loss of market confidence meant growth would be less than expected. The IMF also anticipate shaving to provide up to $50 billion in immediate financial assistance to countries affected by the war, with food insecurity set to affect at least 45 million people. “Given the spillovers from the war, we expect near-term demand for IMF balance-of-payments support to rise by somewhere between $20 billion and $50 billion, with the lower bound prevailing if ceasefire holds,” Georgieva said. The IMF chief was kicking off the annual Spring Meetings co-hosted by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in Washington, which brings together top economic policymakers from around the world. Speaking on Bloomberg TV on Thursday, World Bank President Ajay Banga said his institution could put up as […]

2 weeks ago

China’s Debt Surpasses Europe For The First Time

China’s government debt has surpassed the European Union’s for the first time, marking a major shift in the global debt landscape. Since the 2008 financial crisis, the U.S., China, and Europe have followed very different borrowing paths. While Europe kept debt growth relatively constrained, both the U.S. and China expanded rapidly—especially after 2020. The chart below, via Visual Capitalist’s Niccolo Conte, visualizes annual government debt totals for the U.S., EU, and China from 1995 to 2025 in current U.S. dollars (not adjusted for inflation), using data from the IMF. In 2025, China’s government debt reached $18.7 trillion, surpassing the EU’s $17.6 trillion total for the first time. The crossover underscores how rapidly China’s borrowing has scaled over the past two decades. The Rapid Rise in U.S. and China’s Government Debt In 2008, U.S. government debt stood at $10.9 trillion, roughly in line with the EU’s $10.7 trillion total. By 2025, it had surged to $38.3 trillion, leaving the EU behind by $20.7 trillion. The data table below shows the government debt of the U.S., China, and EU from 1995 to 2025 in current U.S. dollars: From just $1.2 trillion in 2008, China’s government debt grew at roughly 17% annually—fast enough to overtake the […]

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How The Iranian Regime Destroyed Its Economy… Long Before The War

Norway’s Oil Export Earnings Surge 68% Amid Iran War

IMF Warns Australia Set For One Of Highest Inflation Rates In Developed World

India’s Central Bank Tells Oil Refiners To Stop Buying Dollars On Spot Market

UK Voters Call For Lower Taxes & Energy Bills As Economic Concerns Grow

Bahrain Rolls Out Loan Relief And Liquidity Boost To Support Economy

Saudi Arabia Enforces New Financial Control Law Across Public Sector

France’s Gig-Economy Built On Migrant Labor As 99% Of Surveyed Delivery-Riders Are Foreign-Born, Two-Thirds Are Illegal

IMF To Cut Global Growth Forecast Due To Mideast War

China’s Debt Surpasses Europe For The First Time

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