Geopolitics - Gulf Insider

3 hours ago

Trump Extends Iran Ceasefire, Continues Blockade Of Ports

President Donald Trump has announced that the United States will extend its ceasefire with Iran and continue its blockade of Iranian ports, following a request from Pakistan’s top leadership. In a social media statement, Trump said the decision came after appeals from Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who urged Washington to pause military action while Iran’s leadership works toward a unified proposal. He added that Iran’s government is currently “seriously fractured” and said the US military has been instructed to remain on standby while maintaining the blockade.Trump further stated that the ceasefire would remain in place until Iran presents a formal proposal and discussions are concluded. READ MORE: ‘Highly Unlikely’ US Will Extend Iran Ceasefire, ‘Lots Of Bombs Will Go Off’ If No Deal: Trump

1 day ago

UAE Busts Iran-Linked Terror Cell, Arrests Members Over Plot To Destabilise State

The UAE’s State Security dismantled a terrorist organisation and arrested its members for an alleged plot to damage national unity and destabilise the country. The State Security Department on Monday disclosed the identities of 27 individuals and released their photographs. In an official statement, authorities said the group members were involved in covert activities, including plans to carry out coordinated terrorist and sabotage operations within the UAE. Investigations also revealed alleged links between the organisation and Iran’s Wilayat al-Faqih doctrine. Popularised by Ayatollah Khomeini, Wilayat al-Faqih (Guardianship of the Jurist) is a key Shi’a political doctrine. It forms the basis of Iran’s constitution, establishing a “Supreme Leader” to manage state affairs and protect Islamic law. Authorities reported that surveillance and further investigations showed the suspects held clandestine meetings inside and outside the country with people linked to terrorist or suspicious groups. They are also accused of adopting extremist ideologies that threaten the UAE’s internal security, spreading false information among young Emiratis, recruiting them for foreign interests, and encouraging dissent against the country’s policies. Below are the 27 individuals identified by the authorities and accused of attempting to place members in sensitive positions, including through covert recruitment and indoctrination activities coordinated […]

2 days ago

Washington’s Renewed Russian Oil Sanctions Waiver Will Help Their Shared Indian Partner

The Treasury Department renewed the US’ Russian oil sanctions waiver on Friday two days after Secretary Scott Bessent said that this wouldn’t happen. It remains unclear what exactly accounts for this flip-flop, but it’s possible that Trump 2.0 concluded that a deal with Iran might not be reached as soon as some optimists expected, so it’s better to keep Russian oil on the global market for another month to maintain global economic stability. Russia and the US’ shared Indian partner gains the most from this. The IMF recently assessed that India will remain the world’s fastest-growing major economy for this year and the next at 6.5% growth in both, and maintaining this is imperative for both Russia’s and the US’ interests. That’s because India balances between both, having been perceived as tilting a bit closer towards the US in February after the interim Indo-US trade deal was agreed to but then recalibrating back to Russia last month due to the global systemic consequences of the Third Gulf War. As was explained here in March when the US issued its Russian oil sanctions waiver for India before making it global, “The new world order that it envisages has India playing a prominent geo-economic and geopolitical role, especially vis-à-vis China, ergo why it temporarily waived the […]

3 days ago

US Prepares To Board Iran-Linked Ships Globally Following Iranian Gunboat Attack On Tanker In Hormuz

According to the latest headlines there was a second tanker incident: a Container ship reportedly hit by ‘unknown projectile’ in second incident while other traffic stalls. Meanwhile on Saturday the Pentagon is signaling yet another major escalation in the latest effort to reassert US leverage over the Hormuz crisis. It is preparing to expand the fight not just to the Hormuz/Arabian Gulf regions, but broadly to the high seas. “The U.S. military is preparing in coming days to board Iran-linked oil tankers and seize commercial ships in international waters, according to U.S. officials, expanding its naval crackdown beyond the Middle East,” WSJ reports. This means the American military will pursue vessels around the world that are helping Iran, as it steps up ‘Economic Fury’ as an extension of ‘Epic Furty’. WSJ comments further: The planning comes as the Iranian military continues to tighten its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, attacking several commercial vessels on Saturday as it declared the waterway was being “strictly controlled” by Iran. The developments sent shipping companies scrambling a day after Iran’s foreign minister said the strait was fully open to commercial traffic—an announcement that was welcomed by President Trump. Audio of the Indian oil tanker Sanmar Herald pleading with Iranian forces to stop […]

6 days ago

Is The Iran War Good For The Petrodollar?

Diana Choyleva wrote an excellent editorial for the Wall Street Journal entitled “The Iran War Is A Boon For The Petrodollar.” She pushes back against claims that the Iran conflict is accelerating the death of the petrodollar. Instead, RealInvestmentAdvice.com points out that she argues the opposite: between Iran and Venezuela, the U.S. is defending and bolstering dollar dominance in the oil trade. The 75-year-old petrodollar system rests on oil being priced and traded in dollars, which keeps the dollar prominent in all global trade. China has been undermining the petrodollar through yuan settlement systems and by deepening its ties with some Arab nations. Rather than Iran being a “perfect storm” weakening the petrodollar, as some argue, Choyleva sees American military engagement in Iran as supportive of the dollar. Simply, control the flow of oil, and you control the currency it’s traded in. Most Arab nations back the US campaign against Iran. Importantly, “the security commitment was tested; it held.” This reinforced the security-for-oil-pricing bargain that underpins the petrodollar system. The removal of Venezuelan President Maduro and influence over Venezuelan oil accomplishes similar goals. If the US controls Western Hemisphere oil reserves, it would command more oil than OPEC combined, thus providing enormous leverage […]

1 week ago

US Allies Loudly Reject Trump’s Scheme To Blockade Hormuz: ‘Not Getting Dragged In’

The United Kingdom and several other countries rejected Washington’s plan to impose a blockade on Iranian ports and target ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which has gone into effect Monday. Prime Minister Keir Starmer made clear his stance that “we are not supporting the blockade” in a fresh interview with BBC Radio. He emphasized that the UK is not “getting dragged in” to the US-Israeli war against Iran, but still stated that it’s “vital that we get the strait open and fully open.” As fully expected Spain’s government also condemned the US move, with the country’s Defense Minister Margarita Robles having said, “It’s just another episode in this downward spiral we’ve slipped into,” adding that Trump and Netanyahu “want to impose rules on the international community, which is illogical.” Earlier we reported that France is working with the UK on a conference to organize a “strictly defensive” and “peaceful” mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. President Emmanuel Macron said, “As regards the Strait of Hormuz, in the coming days, together with the UK, we will organize a conference with those countries prepared to contribute alongside us to a peaceful multinational mission aimed at restoring freedom of navigation in the strait.” He added, “This strictly defensive mission, […]

1 week ago

Oil Tanker Going To China Forced To Reverse Course Before Crossing Hormuz Under US Blockade

One day after a burst of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, when according to Bloomberg 19 ships crossed in either direction while Trump said that as many as 34 ships crossed the waterway on Sunday, shipping through Hormuz slumped back down again Monday, reversing Sunday’s jump, as caution mounted ahead of a US naval blockade. After 19 ships went through the Strait in either direction on Sunday – the most since the early stages of the war – the momentum reversed by Monday morning. Only four were observed passing on Monday: a single liquefied petroleum gas carrier was sighted entering the Gulf, and three small fuel tankers were raced to exit just hours before the blockade took effect at 10 a.m. New York time. Earlier in the day, the WSJ reported that the US has deployed more than 15 ships – including an aircraft carrier, multiple guided-missile destroyers, an amphibious assault ship and several other warships in the Middle East – in place to support the blockade. These ships have the ability to launch helicopters that support boarding operations, and some are capable of marshalling commercial vessels to specific areas to hold them in place. The warships would likely operate outside the Strait of […]

1 week ago

As US Initiates Blockade Of Hormuz, Trump Warns Any Iranian Ships Coming Near Will Be ‘Eliminated’

The Trump-ordered US military blockade of the Hormuz Strait has gone into effect as of early evening local time (and 10am in the US), and Trump soon after issued the below Truth Social message warning that if any of Iran’s ships – which he says at this point are merely small ‘fast attack ships’ – come “anywhere close to our blockade, they will be immediately eliminated.” He described this will be “the same system of kill that we use against the drug dealers” – in reference to the Caribbean and prior Venezuela operations. The US Navy is said to be operating from the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea while enforcing it. Within the first couple hours of it being in place, there have been no initial reported hostile incidents. In effect a standoff is ensuing. As a reminder, after the earlier CENTCOM announcement of the blockade plans, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf on Sunday had declared, “enjoy the current pump figures,” adding that “with the so-called ‘blockade,’ Soon you’ll be nostalgic for $4–5 gas.” READ MORE: Trump Eyes Limited Iran Strikes, Hormuz Blockade After Peace Talks Collapse

1 week ago

US-Iran Ceasefire: JD Vance Says 21-Hour Talks End Without Deal – Key Takeaways

US Vice President JD Vance said negotiations between the United States and Iran ended after 21 hours in Islamabad without reaching an agreement, following Tehran’s refusal to accept Washington’s terms on nuclear restrictions. He said the US was seeking an “affirmative commitment” that Iran would not pursue nuclear weapons, calling it the “core goal” of President Donald Trump. Constant White House contact during talks Vance said he remained in continuous communication with President Trump and senior officials throughout the talks. He said he spoke with Trump “a half dozen” to “a dozen times” during the negotiations, and also consulted top officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Central Command chief Adm. Brad Cooper. US presents “final and best offer” Standing alongside envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Vance said Washington had delivered its concluding proposal to Tehran. “We leave here with a very simple proposal… our final and best offer. We’ll see if the Iranians accept it,” he said. He departed Pakistan shortly after addressing reporters. Talks held “in good faith” despite deadlock Vance said the US delegation engaged “in good faith” but said Iran ultimately did not accept American terms. “We just could […]

1 week ago

Pakistani Warplanes Land In Saudi Arabia For Start Of Mutual Defense Pact

A Pakistani military force arrived at Saudi Arabia’s King Abdulaziz Air Base on Saturday, as part of a strategic defence pact between the two countries, the kingdom’s defence ministry has announced. The Pakistani force includes air force fighter jets and support aircraft. It was sent to Saudi Arabia to “enhance joint military cooperation, raise operational readiness, and support security and stability in the region,” the ministry’s statement said. The military deployment arrived following five weeks of US-Israeli attacks on Iran, and as ceasefire talks take place in Islamabad. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a strategic defence agreement last year involving joint deployments, intelligence sharing, and coordinated responses to regional threats. The pact commits both states to treat any attack on one as an attack on both, allowing the Gulf kingdom to benefit from the protection afforded by Pakistan’s nuclear weapons arsenal. In January, Pakistani F-16 fighter aircraft participated in a multinational air combat exercise in Saudi Arabia. The Spears of Victory-2026 exercise also involved military forces from France, Italy, Greece, Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, the UK, and the US. Riyadh and Islamabad have a history of close military cooperation dating back to the 1960’s. During the 1991 Gulf War, Pakistan sent troops to defend the Saudi […]

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Trump Extends Iran Ceasefire, Continues Blockade Of Ports

UAE Busts Iran-Linked Terror Cell, Arrests Members Over Plot To Destabilise State

Washington’s Renewed Russian Oil Sanctions Waiver Will Help Their Shared Indian Partner

US Prepares To Board Iran-Linked Ships Globally Following Iranian Gunboat Attack On Tanker In Hormuz

Is The Iran War Good For The Petrodollar?

US Allies Loudly Reject Trump’s Scheme To Blockade Hormuz: ‘Not Getting Dragged In’

Oil Tanker Going To China Forced To Reverse Course Before Crossing Hormuz Under US Blockade

As US Initiates Blockade Of Hormuz, Trump Warns Any Iranian Ships Coming Near Will Be ‘Eliminated’

US-Iran Ceasefire: JD Vance Says 21-Hour Talks End Without Deal – Key Takeaways

Pakistani Warplanes Land In Saudi Arabia For Start Of Mutual Defense Pact

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