Fri, May 23 2025
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4 years ago
Charlie Cooksey talks to Christian Gattiker, Head of Research at Swiss Wealth Manager, Julius Baer on investing in the last quarter of 2021. Are we facing inflation or deflation, and how does it affect investment decisions? We are facing a bit of both. In the long-run, we’re certainly facing deflation, with falling prices in the past 30-40 years and all the more during the pandemic. What changed during this kind of normalisation is that we have had a spike in inflation and the question now is – is it transitory or will it remain this way? Our take is that we’re in a rather intermediate increase of inflation, which is very much related to the fact that lots of things were shut down and now reopened, so there’s a scarcity of some things and that pushes up the prices. Then we see a normilasation. That means we’ll most probably end up where we were before the crisis. Meaning not deflation, but rather pricing should be in time. Why do you believe the extent of the global economic recovery is being underestimated? We suspect that the blueprint is a different one from what we usually have of the growth crisis. The […]
4 years ago
Yves Bonzon, Group Chief Investment Officer at Swiss Wealth Manager, Julius Baer talks to Gulf Insider on how the pandemic impacted secular trends and opportunities going forward. Did you see a major shift in trends from 2019 to 2020 due to the pandemic? The pandemic did not as much shift secular trends as accelerated them, and substantially at that. When we first formulated the key themes for this decade, we hypothesized the end of the neoliberal era was close and envisioned a new unorthodox policy template which places a greater importance on fiscal stimulus and debt monetization, as suggested by proponents of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). The immediate policy response to the Covid-19 crisis was taken right out of that MMT policy toolbox – with governments rushing to implement massive stimulus programs, backed by central banks annihilating rates to their lowest levels, while pumping liquidity to support asset prices. Recently, the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, confirmed that the central bank will not even think about raising rates until they see the white in inflation’s eye. This is an extreme departure from the old policy paradigm. How has Covid-19 changed how you look at strategic asset allocation? The Strategic Asset […]
4 years ago
By Ahmad Chahidi, Executive Director – Wealth Planning, Julius Baer (Middle East) Limited You think that squeezing all of your family’s assets into the same structure will reduce complexity? In our experience, this doesn’t hold true. We have identified seven common mistakes to avoid when setting up a trust. What is a trust? A trust is a fiduciary arrangement that allows a third party, or trustee, to hold assets on behalf of a beneficiary or beneficiaries. Trusts can be arranged in many ways and can specify exactly how and when the assets pass to the beneficiaries. Julius Baer’s three trust companies have existed for decades. Two of them have been serving clients for over 30 years. The youngest trust company in Singapore will turn ten this year. Throughout this time, we have talked to clients from all over the world about setting up structures for their families. But how to best set up a trust? And what are the things to be aware of? Learn from seven common mistakes made by families around the globe: 1. Mixing up trusts with bank accounts A well-planned trust sets significant funds aside for the longer term to ensure that there is capital for […]
4 years ago
Christian Gattiker, Head of Research and Mathieu Racheter, Strategy Research Analyst Emerging Markets, at Julius Baer take us through eight events that would qualify as “low probability-high impact” in 2021. Thinking the unthinkable Expecting the unexpected does not only defy linguistical logic but also, is a very hard thing to do. After issuing our yearly outlook expectations, we are regularly asked about what could go wrong and what would be the most devastating things that could happen. That usually leads straight into black swan discussions. This is when we throw in that even Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who hammered the term ‘black swan’ into the consciousness of the financial community, has declared that neither the Great Financial Crisis nor the Covid-19 pandemic qualify as black swan events as these types of risks have been known for generations. We therefore settle on the term ‘low-probability, high-impact events’ hereafter to discuss the uncertainties in the months ahead. 1: An utterly dull 2021 disappoints high-flying hopes After coming out of a crisis, investors expect things to continue as least as spectacularly – for good or bad – as during the crisis. History tells a different story. After the heavy interventions of policymakers, markets tend […]
4 years ago
Bahrain’s trade balance improved by 8%, with the value of exports of national origin increasing by 4% and the value of imports decreasing by 4%, the 2020 foreign trade report issued by the Information & eGovernment Authority (iGA) shows. The report encompasses data on the balance of trade, imports, exports (national origin), and re-exports. China ranked first when it came to imports to Bahrain, with a total of BD664 million, followed by Saudi Arabia with BD352 million, and Australia with BD330 million. The report said the value of exports of national origin increased by 4% to BD2.387 billion in 2020, compared to BD2.298 billion in the previous year. The top 10 countries in terms of the value of exports of national origin purchased from Bahrain accounted for 74% of the total value, with the remaining countries accounting for 26%.
4 years ago
By Diego Wuergler, Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), Head of Investment Advisory, Bank Julius Baer If investment is a journey, then asset allocation is its guiding star. Here are four steps towards building an investment portfolio that suits your needs. Getting your investment portfolio right requires getting your asset allocation right. When it comes to returns, 80 per cent of the result can be attributed to asset allocation yet many investors don’t realise this. Whether you’ve recently inherited funds, turned a cash profit by downsizing or simply decided to start structuring your wealth, it pays to work through the four steps below. Step one: Map-out your game planWhat would you like to achieve? And by when? No-one invests just for the sake of it – there’s always an expectation driving our investment behavior. But we only know if our expectations are met when we truly understand them. This requires taking time to specify your needs in detail: what are the exact financial and wealth goals you wish to achieve? This can be more wide-ranging than we initially think, spreading past desired profit levels to include philanthropic or entrepreneurial goals, as well as the fulfillment of dreams such as home ownership, renovation or travel. In determining your game plan, […]
4 years ago
By Diego Wuergler is Head of Investment Advisory at Julius Baer. Are you missing out? On average, cash represents 1/3 of the typical investor’s portfolio. It’s not too late to buy, and you should still buy at today’s level. Buying today is not difficult to do, but find out how you can avoid a few mistakes. Most of us trust what we are told. Since COVID-19, we have been constantly informed that we are in the worst crisis ever and that life will never be the same again. Studies have quantified the immense damage. On a daily basis, we are being confronted with stories of human tragedies. It’s no wonder that so many investors are still loaded with cash today. A lot of it. On average, cash represents 1/3 of the typical investor’s portfolio. Ironically, the market has quickly dismissed this challenging news and recorded a tremendous rebound since the lows of September: +60% for the S&P500 and +55% for the MSCI World. What should investors still sitting on cash (and having missed the boat) do today? Is it too late to buy? No, it is not too late. In my view, you should still buy at today’s level. Or maybe […]
4 years ago
Gulf Insider talks to Dr. Susan E. Saxton, Founding President of the American University of Bahrain. How is your organization contributing to the development of the Kingdom of Bahrain? In general, the AUBH quality of American-style education mirrors that of the best universities in the United States, and we are the first of our kind in the Kingdom. Through our unique academic philosophy, students will be equipped to identify their interests and passion and focus their attention on following the path they find personally suitable. This approach runs through everything we do, and so creates a unique caliber of graduate which AUBH will become synonymous with in Bahrain. What makes your University special? Many things! True to our Americanstyle curriculum, with AUBH, students can change their mind with regards to their major. They have two years of general education courses common across all colleges, giving them the skills to be productive, to find their own resources, to self-assess. We discovered that this way we can enable students to find their real passions rather than being forced to choose a path too early – they ‘learn to learn.’ We envision a new league of graduates, empowered with the ability to think […]
4 years ago
by Yves Bonzon, Group Chief Investment Officer at Julius Baer From the macroeconomy and capital markets to potential risk factors – each December we present the main forces that will shape the next decade. This year we have singled out fifteen trends. Continue reading to learn more about three of them. Background: We are shifting from the neoliberal era to ’state-sponsored capitalism’ The neoliberal era, which started 40 years ago under the Reagan and Thatcher administrations, is definitely over. We are now on a fast track toward a system that can be best described as ‘state-sponsored capitalism’. This new paradigm is a direct response to colossal shifts that globalisation, liberalisation, extreme finacialisation and digitalisation brought upon western societies. Historical secular trends 60/40 = 60% equities/40% bonds; quantamental = combination of quantitative and fundamental investing; MMT = Modern Monetary Theory; TechCare = combination of technology and healthcare, * projection Source: Julius Baer Trend 1: Rise of political triggers and decline of market signalsIn the age of state-sponsored capitalism, endogenous market signals are blurred, as government interventions steer the cost of capital. We are in the process of losing free markets, as central banks extend their asset purchases further and further along […]
4 years ago
Here’s an interview with Adnan Ahmed Yousif, President & Chief Executive, Al Baraka Banking Group. It’s been a year since the launch of Islamic challenger bank Insha. How is Insha doing? With low interest rates and volatile markets, where do you see growth coming from? How does your organisation embrace open banking? The response on Insha is extremely encouraging. In fact, in early 2020, we have witnessed a double growth in terms of the number of customers and we registered an average growth rate of 32% on transactions per month. Like several other challenger banks, our strategy is it is to focus initially on gaining a strong customer base and providing them with basic services and then grow accordingly. Going forward, we plan to expand into new European markets, introduce more products and services, and finally of course, serve new customer segments. We have committed a dedicated team on the Insha project in order to make this bank a success. Concerning open banking, last year we launched, the Al Baraka Global API Portal that has more than 25 APIs under six main categories: accounts, money transfers, financings, credit cards, information services and investment products. The portal is open to global […]
6 hours ago
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