Money & Business - Gulf Insider

4 weeks ago

Goldman Warns Brent Could Top $120 If Gulf Chokepoint Crisis Deepens

Brent crude futures are trading in the low $90s as the Gulf area escalation enters a tenth consecutive day. Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, while two tankers carrying Saudi crude reversed course in the southern Red Sea after warnings from Iran-backed Houthi forces placed another critical maritime chokepoint under threat. For more color on energy markets, Goldman commodities expert Daan Struyven warned clients on Monday that Brent crude futures could surge above $120 a barrel by the fourth quarter if disruptions in the Hormuz maritime chokepoint persist; he noted that such an outcome is not his base case. Struyven sees Brent around $80 in the fourth quarter and $75 next year, assuming US and Iran tensions ease, but warned that risks remained tilted to the upside as Persian Gulf flows fall below 45% of prewar levels and Houthi threats in the southern Red Sea chokepoint. “Escalation in the Middle East and the decline in estimated Persian Gulf flows to below 45% of pre-war levels have pushed oil prices back up,” Struyven said. Struyven noted, “Brent might exceed $120/bbl in 2026Q4 and average $100 in 2027 if Hormuz remains disrupted through 2027 (Exhibit 2, red line). This […]

1 month ago

India Approves $13 Billion Semiconductor Plan

India approved a new semiconductor programme on Wednesday, offering more than $13 billion in financial assistance to accelerate local chip production, as it seeks to become a global electronics powerhouse. India’s Union Cabinet approved the “Semicon 2.0” initiative, expanding on a drive launched five years ago to reduce reliance on imports and attract investment in one of the world’s most strategically important industries. It comes as countries race to secure semiconductor supply chains following pandemic-era disruptions and growing geopolitical tensions that exposed vulnerabilities in global chip production. The programme will focus on strengthening the local semiconductor ecosystem, encouraging domestic production of key materials and attracting global manufacturers to establish fabrication plants in India. The plan recognised the need for “sustained and long-term support” to the industry and aimed to place India “on the semiconductor map of the world”, the cabinet said in a statement, without providing more details on how the money will be used. An earlier semiconductor incentive scheme “Semicon 1.0”, which was unveiled in 2021, offered support covering up to half the cost of setting up chip projects. The incentives helped launch 12 manufacturing projects across fabrication, packaging and related segments, with at least three already entering commercial […]

1 month ago

Revolut Gets Green Light to Bring Crypto Services to the UAE

Revolut has taken another big step in its crypto expansion, securing in-principle approval from Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) to offer virtual asset services in the UAE. The approval covers broker-dealer, management, investment, and exchange services. Once Revolut clears the remaining regulatory steps, these services will roll out through its retail app and its standalone crypto exchange, Revolut X. In practice, that means eligible customers in the UAE will be able to buy, sell, and hold digital assets through a regulated setup. This isn’t Revolut’s first move in the region this year. The company already picked up approval from the Central Bank of the UAE for its payments business, so this VARA nod builds on that and points to Revolut’s plan to run a fully regulated financial ecosystem in the country, covering everything from everyday payments to crypto trading. Joseph Khair, who heads up Revolut Digital Assets FZE in the UAE, said the country has set a strong example when it comes to building clear, well-thought-out rules for virtual assets. He added that the approval gives Revolut a solid base to bring its crypto services into a regulated environment, in line with VARA’s push for a safe and innovation-friendly […]

1 month ago

Rethinking Trust in the Age of AI-Powered Commerce

Shopping used to mean walking into a store, or at most, clicking through a website you trusted. Now it means scrolling Instagram, tapping a link an influencer shared, and letting an AI assistant help narrow down the choices before you even reach checkout. The convenience is real, but so is the risk. In Bahrain, 68% of consumers have bought something directly through social media, and 43% of those who fell victim to a scam say it happened on that same platform. Ahmed ElKaffass, Country Manager for Bahrain at Visa, talks about what this shift means for consumer trust. As AI agents move from helping people compare products to potentially making purchases on their behalf, the question of who is responsible for ensuring transaction safety becomes harder to answer. ElKaffass points out that most consumers do not see fraud prevention as their own job. They expect banks, platforms and payment providers to share that responsibility. He also explains why only a small fraction of Bahraini consumers currently trust AI to complete a purchase for them, even though most already use AI tools while shopping, and what businesses need to do to close that gap. In Conversation with Ahmed ElKaffass, Country Manager […]

1 month ago

UAE gets easier access to US AI chips: What changed and why it matters

Washington’s move seen speeding up AI, energy, space, infrastructure projects in the UAE Dubai: The United States has given the UAE one of the biggest upgrades to its technology partnership in years by easing export controls and granting the country broader access to advanced American technologies. The decision goes well beyond artificial intelligence chips. It also covers a wide range of high-tech products, including certain military equipment, commercial satellites, spacecraft and dual-use technologies used in sectors such as energy, desalination and civil nuclear power. For the UAE, the move strengthens its ambition to become a global AI and advanced technology hub while making it easier for approved government bodies and companies to buy some of the world’s most advanced American technologies. The US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) has moved the UAE into Country Group A:5 under US Export Administration Regulations. At the same time, it removed the UAE from the more restrictive Country Groups D:3 and D:4. In practical terms, this means many exports that previously required individual US government licences can now qualify for licence-free transfers under the Strategic Trade Authorization (STA) programme, provided all conditions are met. US export controls govern access to […]

1 month ago

Netflix’s Live TV Pivot Exposes Growing Engagement Crisis As Shares Falter

Netflix shares are teetering on the edge of a bear market after a brutal stretch of underperformance and one of the stock’s worst first-half starts in two decades. Subscriber engagement has become an increasing concern for the streaming giant, and a new report suggests management may be considering a risky pivot toward live television to revive viewing time and strengthen its advertising business. According to The Wall Street Journal, Netflix management is weighing live channels, third-party streaming bundles, and additional sports rights as it seeks to reverse declining subscriber engagement. To bolster engagement, executives at the company have recently discussed adding live channels that would continuously stream certain programs, or shows and films from a certain genre, according to people familiar with the matter. The company has also explored bundling other subscription-based streaming services, including NBCUniversal’s Peacock, into its offering. It would sell those subscriptions through its main app as rivals such as Amazon.com and Apple have long done, some of the people said. Netflix’s discussions about adding TV channels and potentially streaming bundles, which would appear like tiles on the streamer’s home page, show how the company is willing to pivot from its roots. The pivot comes as audience […]

1 month ago

“Deepening Dark Trend” Emerges On Hormuz As Ship Traffic Slows

The US military has struck Iranian targets for a second straight day, while Tehran has responded with ballistic missile and drone attacks targeting Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and even faraway Jordan. While our overnight wrap focused on the latest war developments, the focus here is what energy traders are watching most closely: vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Bloomberg cites new shipping data showing that the Hormuz chokepoint slowed to a near standstill on Thursday. Among larger vessels, only a US-sanctioned supertanker heading out of the Persian Gulf was seen in the strait, alongside an Iranian-flagged container ship. It’s possible that some vessels may be crossing with their transponders turned off, however. The slowdown marks a sharp reversal from the partial recovery that followed the mid-June interim US-Iran peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Commodity-vessel transits averaged 34 a day over the past three weeks and peaked at 59 on June 24, according to Kpler data. That compares with just 14 crossings Wednesday, the lowest since the deal and near wartime levels. Maritime research firm Windward also commented on the Hormuz slowdown: Strait of Hormuz traffic held overnight but kept declining, with a deepening dark trend. 4 inbound, […]

1 month ago

IEA Warns Escalation In US-Iran Hostilities Could Upend Oil Surplus Forecast

Despite the tentative recovery of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the first build-up in global stocks since the war began, this week’s re-escalation of the U.S.-Iran hostilities could flip the outlook for an oil market surplus for next year, the International Energy Agency said on Friday. Oil prices have plunged since the United States and Iran signed the memorandum of understanding (MoU) in the middle of June, with North Sea Dated prices down by $31 per barrel in June to $68 a barrel by early July, their lowest since January and $2 per barrel below pre-war levels, OilPrice reported. And while the oil market is still expected to move to significant surplus towards the end of the year, IEA said that this is heavily predicated on the assumption that tanker flows through the Strait will gradually recover: “An escalation in hostilities on 7-8 July, however, clouds the outlook and could upend the forecast that sees the market flipping to a surplus next year,” the IEA said in its closely watched Oil Market Report for July. Since the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, tankers have rushed to exit the Persian Gulf, including millions of barrels of Iranian crude that […]

1 month ago

Strategic Oil Reserve Buying Set To Support Crude Demand Through 2028

Governments are set to buy millions of barrels of oil through 2028 to rebuild emergency reserves depleted by drawdowns to plug a gap in global supply caused by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, analysts and officials said. This could boost demand for crude that would absorb some of the expected global supply surplus following OPEC+’s decision to increase output, they say. Governments drew down emergency reserves after supply disruptions linked to the conflict removed an estimated 1.5 billion barrels from global inventories this year, according to Reuters calculations based on International Energy Agency, OPEC and U.S. Department of Energy data. The IEA coordinated a record 400-million-barrel release after disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz drove crude prices sharply higher. Brent crude rose above $126 a barrel in late April and U.S. crude approached $120 in early March. Replenishing those reserves could add up to 664,000 barrels per day of demand by third quarter 2027, according to commodities analytics firm Kpler, helping to absorb some of the excess supply expected next year as OPEC+ continues to unwind production cuts. This would curb price falls. “Strategic Petroleum Reserve restocking will lead to a higher price floor in 2027,” said Christopher Haines, head […]

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Goldman Warns Brent Could Top $120 If Gulf Chokepoint Crisis Deepens

India Approves $13 Billion Semiconductor Plan

Revolut Gets Green Light to Bring Crypto Services to the UAE

Rethinking Trust in the Age of AI-Powered Commerce

UAE gets easier access to US AI chips: What changed and why it matters

Netflix’s Live TV Pivot Exposes Growing Engagement Crisis As Shares Falter

“Deepening Dark Trend” Emerges On Hormuz As Ship Traffic Slows

IEA Warns Escalation In US-Iran Hostilities Could Upend Oil Surplus Forecast

Strategic Oil Reserve Buying Set To Support Crude Demand Through 2028

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