Monsoons, hurricanes, wet winter all in play as El Nino returns

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced Thursday the return of El Nino: the warm phase of a natural climate cycle linked to higher global temperatures and wild weather.

The seesawing shift in ocean temperatures and winds forms across the tropical Pacific Ocean but can influence drought, floods, and other extremes thousands of miles away.

Scientists caution that every El Nino is different and strong events like that forecast this year do not guarantee certain impacts — but tilt the odds in their favour.

During El Nino, trade winds weaken and atmospheric patterns shift across the tropical Pacific, allowing warm waters around Indonesia to spread eastward toward South America. 

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Evaporation, cloud and rainfall patterns shift eastward as well, and many parts of Asia experience drier-than-average conditions and drought during El Nino years.

El Nino can also suppress the monsoon over South Asia, depriving India and other parts of the subcontinent of vital rain that supports hundreds of millions of people.

El Nino also raises the likelihood of drought, heatwaves and wildfires in Australia as warmer-than average conditions grip the continent.

This particularly deprives eastern parts of the country of rainfall and sees a later start to the northern wet season — though less chance of tropical cyclones.

Some of the worst droughts in Australia’s modern history have been linked to El Nino years, but scientists caution that even strong events do not always bring below-average rainfall.

El Nino is often associated with increased rainfall in parts of the Horn Africa.

Source Gulf News