El Niño expected to strengthen; how will UAE weather be affected this autumn?

For the UAE, the El Niño climate phenomenon developing thousands of kilometres away in the tropical Pacific could have implications for weather patterns in the months ahead — but experts caution against assuming it will automatically bring extreme conditions to the Emirates.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has forecast a high likelihood — nearly 100 per cent — that El Niño will persist through February 2027. US forecasters have also estimated a more than 90 per cent chance that the phenomenon will reach strong levels during the Northern Hemisphere’s autumn and winter.

So, what could the phenomenon mean for the UAE? The country’s National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) has sought to counter alarmist claims circulating online, stressing that El Niño’s effects vary from region to region and do not automatically translate into extreme weather here.

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO — a natural climate pattern involving changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation across the tropical Pacific.

During El Niño, sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become unusually warm. The associated changes in trade winds and atmospheric circulation can shift rainfall and temperature patterns thousands of kilometres away.

El Niño occurs irregularly, generally every two to seven years, and typically lasts about nine to 12 months, although individual events can persist longer. It usually develops between March and June and reaches peak intensity between November and February.

The current event is particularly notable because ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific have risen sharply. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported recently that sea-surface temperature anomalies in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific had exceeded 3°C, while the Niño 3.4 index stood at 1.8°C.

El Niño does not produce the same weather everywhere. Its influence depends on geography, season and the interaction with other climate drivers, including the Indian Ocean Dipole (climate pattern that describes the difference in sea-surface temperatures between the western and eastern parts of the Indian Ocean).

Across Southeast Asia, Asean Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) says, “El Niño generally raises the likelihood of below-normal rainfall”, particularly over parts of the Maritime Continent. The region is also expected to experience above-normal temperatures during September-November 2026.

South Asia can also experience weaker monsoon rainfall during El Niño years. India has already experienced a deficient 2026 monsoon, with September rainfall becoming a growing concern. India’s government notes that El Niño generally has an adverse effect on the summer monsoon, particularly later in the season.

In the Greater Horn of Africa, meanwhile, El Niño is associated with a greater likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions during the October-December rainfall season.

The Americas also see characteristic shifts, including increased rainfall in some parts of the southern United States and changes in precipitation across South America. However, these are regional tendencies rather than guarantees for individual countries.

El Niño is also adding to an already exceptionally warm global climate. Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) data confirms that August 2026 was the joint-hottest August on record, although scientists also stress that human-caused climate change remains the dominant driver of long-term global warming.

The UAE is far from the Pacific, so El Niño does not directly determine the country’s daily weather. Instead, its influence reaches the region through large-scale atmospheric connections.

Source Khaleej Times