Turkiye’s Middle Ground Position Becomes Untenable as US Intensifies Conflicts
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently delivered a speech lambasting Israel for its brutal disregard for the lives of Palestinian civilians. He blamed the US above all for the tragedy in Palestine-Israel. Now, this is the exact same sentiment that Russia and China have expressed, but Erdogan tends to keep his statements a little more interesting. So he added on the facts that the West is possibly looking to start another holy war and that Israel is a war criminal.
Israel has since withdrawn its diplomats from Turkiye, meaning relations between the two are now in danger of sinking to 2010 lows when an Israelis killed 10 civilians on a Turkish aid ship to Gaza. Prior to the Gaza crisis, Erdogan and Netanyahu were moving rapprochement.
First off, it should be noted that Ankara has yet to respond to Israel’s move. Most importantly, oil is still flowing from Turkiye to Israel. From bne Intellinews:
Israel’s oil imports have continued to pass through Turkiye despite the near collapse of relations between the two countries over the uncompromising military operations mounted by the Israelis in the Gaza Strip in response to the Hamas cross-border massacre committed three weeks ago.
The Seaviolet, an oil tanker registered in Malta, recently transported 1mn barrels of Azerbaijani crude from Turkiye’s Mediterranean oil hub port of Ceyhan to Israel’s Eilat Port, according to a report by Bloomberg. Around 40% of Israel’s annual oil consumption is met by crude that is piped to Ceyhan for onward shipping.
Erdogan’s comments also need to be viewed in the context of the approaching local elections coming up in March 2024 in Turkiye. Erdogan desperately wants to retake Istanbul (and other large municipalities like Ankara), he had an opportunity to speak to a crowd of roughly 1 million, and he gave them what they wanted.
While Erdogan’s bold proclamations that add fuel to the fire could be dismissed as Erdogan’s political maneuvering, the fact is that Turkish public opinion is increasingly against the West. It would be political suicide for Erdogan to stand with the West behind Israel’s slaughter of Palestinians (roughly 99 percent of Turkiye’s population is Muslim), and that conflict has increasingly taken on an East-West dynamic as the US and Europe are the lone supporters of Israel.
Turkiye has benefited economically from its East-West middle ground position ever since the start of the not-so-cold war, genocide in Gaza (and the possibility that the US uses some claim of “self defense” to launch attacks against Iran and Syria and who knows who else) could finally make Turkiye’s balancing act between the West/Nato and East untenable. Or more accurately, it makes the balancing act between the US and Turkish public opinion untenable.
Turkish public opinion is already far more anti-western than it used to be, which limits Ankara’s flexibility. Recent polling in Turkiye show that 75 percent think the EU is biased against Turkiye; 52 percent think the US is the biggest threat to Turkiye. Despite Turkiye and Russia’s long history of conflicts, only 19 percent saw Russia as the biggest threat. A December poll by the Turkish company Gezici found that 72.8 percent of Turkish citizens polled were in favor of good relations with Russia while nearly 90 percent think the US is a hostile country.
Importantly, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian paid an official visit to Turkiye yesterday (Nov. 1) to discuss the ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine, bilateral ties and other regional developments. One would have to believe that the US’ massive military buildup in the regions was on the agenda.
While US Secretary of State Antony Blinken skipped Turkiye during his shuttle diplomacy, Amir-Abdollahian and his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan both called for an immediate ceasefire and a peace conference involving “Muslim and Arab” countries. Amir-Abdollahian was also reportedly received by Erdogan. While no information was provided on the meeting, Fidan said the two ministries are now working on a state visit by Iranian President Ibrahim Reisi to Turkiye, which is expected to happen soon.
Ankara’s decision to not only meet with Iran at this time but also declare its agreement with Tehran is sure to upset many in Washington and is a loud and clear declaration from Turkiye on where it stands should the US attack Iran.
Already, Ankara and Washington are facing the prospect of large protests this week at the major American air base in southeastern Turkiye. From Stars & Stripes:
Bulent Yildirim, the chairman of a relief organization with ties to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, on Tuesday advocated for a march around Incirlik Air Base in connection with demands for a cease-fire in Gaza as Israel’s ground invasion gets underway. Yildirim also urged Turkiye’s parliament to vote on whether to shut down Incirlik and a small U.S. military outpost in Kurecik, where the Army operates a missile defense radar.
“We will march to Incirlik base from every part of Turkiye, from every district and neighborhood. … Let’s surround that Incirlik base,” he said at a news conference Tuesday, according to the state-run news agency Anadolu.
U.S. forces in Europe did not immediately say Wednesday whether security would be ramped up around the base. Turkish media have reported that U.S. forces stationed at Incirlik have been restricted to base since the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict last month.
