On Monday morning, in the East Wing of the White House, President Trump began a Medal of Honour ceremony with remarks that quickly turned from tribute to war. Speaking in measured tones, he outlined the rationale for Operation Epic Fury, now in its third day, and vowed to “crush” what he called the Iranian threat to the United States.
The president said American forces had already destroyed ten Iranian vessels and promised that Tehran would no longer be able to “fund armies beyond borders.” At least four American service members have been killed since the operation began, according to early reports, though later briefings from U.S. Central Command put the number at six dead and 18 seriously wounded.
Mr Trump projected a conflict lasting “four to five weeks,” while adding that it could continue “as long as it takes.” The phrasing, resolute yet open-ended, signalled the possibility of another prolonged American military engagement in the Middle East, even as administration officials insisted this campaign would not resemble Iraq or Afghanistan.
By late afternoon, financial markets were already reacting.
An analyst at UBS told clients that Iranian media had reported the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a claim Tehran has periodically made in moments of heightened tension. West Texas Intermediate crude rose more than 7 per cent on the headlines. U.S. Central Command said the strait remained open, and asserted that Iran’s naval presence in the Gulf of Oman had been eliminated. Yet even unverified threats can unsettle shipping lanes. The question facing commercial carriers is not only whether the waterway is technically open, but whether it is safe.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, pressed repeatedly about the administration’s objectives, said there were no American “boots on the ground” in Iran but declined to rule them out. “The president always has all options,” he said, adding that he believed the mission’s goals could be achieved without deploying ground forces. He acknowledged that there was currently no diplomatic channel with Tehran and warned that “the next hits are the hardest to come.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Energy Secretary Chris Wright are expected to announce measures aimed at containing fuel prices, as energy markets absorb the shock of widening hostilities. Analysts warn that even if Iran’s conventional naval capacity has been degraded, its asymmetric capabilities – drones, missiles and mines – could continue to disrupt traffic through Hormuz, a chokepoint for a significant share of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas.
The administration framed the timing of the strikes as pre-emptive.
Mr Rubio said intelligence indicated that any Israeli action against Iran would trigger retaliation against American forces. “If we stood and waited for that attack to come first,” he said, “we would suffer much higher casualties.” The State Department has urged Americans in 14 countries to depart.
Reports of attacks and counterattacks have multiplied. U.S. installations in Kuwait and Jordan have come under fire. Qatari air defences intercepted ballistic missiles and drones, according to officials there. Iran’s foreign minister called on regional governments to pressure Washington to halt the strikes, insisting Tehran was not at war with its Gulf neighbours. NATO’s secretary general said the alliance would not join the U.S.-Israeli campaign.
The Pentagon said American forces had struck more than 1,250 targets inside Iran since the start of the operation, while Israeli officials reported dismantling hundreds of sites tied to Iran’s military and allied groups. Iranian claims — including the downing of U.S. aircraft and the closure of Hormuz — were contested by American and regional officials. In the fog of war, information travels quickly and certainty more slowly.
On Monday evening, the Pentagon announced that U.S. forces had achieved “local air superiority” over parts of Iran. Three American F-15 aircraft were reported downed over Kuwait; U.S. and Kuwaiti officials attributed the losses to friendly fire, and said six airmen had parachuted safely.
At a press conference, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth rejected suggestions that the campaign would become an “endless war.” The objective, he said, was to dismantle Iran’s missile capabilities, naval assets and security infrastructure. “We’re hitting them surgically, overwhelmingly and unapologetically,” he said. Yet he, too, declined to offer a precise timeline or a clear definition of success.
Mr Trump, for his part, has oscillated between assurances and escalation.
He told reporters he did not “have the yips” about sending ground troops if necessary, though he suggested they would “probably” not be needed. In an interview, he said the “big wave” of strikes had yet to come.
Behind the battlefield updates lies a broader strategic wager. Some analysts argue the campaign aims not only to neutralise Iran’s military capacity but to reshape regional alignments, constrain China’s access to supplies, and reinforce American influence. Others warn that a miscalculation in the Gulf, where missiles, drones and tankers converge, could widen the conflict and send shock waves through global markets.
For now, the United States appears committed to a course whose end remains undefined. Whether there is an off-ramp, diplomatic or military, may depend less on declarations from Washington than on events unfolding across the Gulf skies and waters in the days ahead.
READ MORE: At Least 112 USAF C-17 Aircraft Headed To Middle East: ‘Desert Storm Levels’
