The number of murders in the US is on track for its largest one-year drop on record, according to an analysis by noted crime stats expert, Jeff Asher.
Using the Real-Time Crime Index that compares data from 570 law enforcement agencies, Asher reports a nearly 20% decline in murders in 2025 vs. the same period in 2024. The database excludes manslaughter, self-defense, negligence, or “accidental killings.”
As Asher notes on his Substack,
The drop in crime in 2025 continues a trend that began in 2023, accelerated in 2024, and likely became historic in 2025. A roughly 20 percent drop in murder in 2025, as is suggested by the current data, would be by far the largest decline ever recorded, eclipsing the decline in 2024 — currently pegged at -15 percent by the FBI but that’s subject to a likely upward revision next year.
Other types of crime are seeing large reported declines as well. These drops range from a nearly 23 percent decline in motor vehicle thefts in the RTCI to a smaller 9 and 8 percent drop in theft and aggravated assault respectively according to the RTCI. These numbers won’t be finalized for a while, but they paint the picture of large drops in crime even if the current numbers potentially overstate that drop by a small bit.
Other major crime categories tracked by the index were also down, including motor vehicle thefts (23.2%), aggravated assaults (7.5%) and robbery (18.3%).
When analyzed by major city using data from City Data, Birmingham, Albuquerque, Columbus, Baltimore and Chicago led the decline, while Milwaukee, Kansas City, and Los Angeles actually saw increases YTD.
