As the Third Gulf War escalates across the Gulf, a pivotal question looms over the regional security architecture: will Islamabad honour its Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) with Saudi Arabia? Signed in September 2025, the pact, often likened to NATO’s Article 5, stipulates that any aggression against one is an attack on both. With Iranian drones recently targeting the Ras Tanura refinery and the US Embassy in Riyadh, the collective defence clause is facing its first major stress test.
Deterrence or Diplomacy?
Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar recently suggested that Pakistani shuttle diplomacy has already mitigated the conflict’s intensity. According to Dar, Tehran sought assurances that Saudi soil would not be used for US-led Operation Epic Fury. He claims that as a result, the Kingdom has faced the fewest attacks compared to other regional neighbours. However, critics argue that mutual defence pacts are designed to deter aggression entirely, not merely manage the volume of incoming fire.
The dilemma for Islamabad is stark. Activating the pact risks a massive escalation and potential internal friction within Pakistan’s own borders. Conversely, remaining on the sidelines could signal military impotence, carrying high reputational costs for a nation seeking to restore its status as a primary US security partner.
The Geostrategic Gamble
For Pakistan, the stakes extend far beyond the Gulf. Strategists suggest three primary drivers for a potential intervention:
- The Trump Factor: As a Major Non-NATO Ally, Pakistan is keen to realign with Trump 2.0 to regain the regional influence it lost to India.
- The Afghanistan Pivot: A joint US-Pakistani effort could facilitate a return to Bagram Airbase, effectively neutralising the Taliban threat and curbing Indian influence in Kabul.
- Counter-Terrorism Cover: Involvement in the Gulf conflict could provide a pretext for strikes against Baloch separatists, potentially impacting the India-linked Chabahar port in Iran.
A New Regional Order
Should Riyadh and Islamabad activate their alliance, it could catalyse a broader US-coordinated front, potentially drawing in smaller Gulf Kingdoms. This shift would not only challenge Iranian hegemony but also allow Pakistan to support Turkish interests in Central Asia, challenging Russian influence along its southern periphery.
Whether through direct military involvement or anti-terrorist operations, Pakistan’s next move will likely define the New Regional Order at the crossroads of South and Central Asia. With the SMDA effectively on the table, Islamabad’s entry into the conflict remains a compelling, if volatile, possibility.
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