In a series of high-stakes diplomatic calls this Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin reached out to the leaders of the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia. The discussions come at a critical juncture for the GCC, as several member states have faced Iranian strikes, retaliations premised on the presence of US military facilities involved in the ongoing conflict.
The Kremlin’s official readouts across these calls followed a remarkably consistent narrative: acknowledging the damage reported by Gulf capitals, offering Russian sympathy, and subtly positioning Moscow as the only global power capable of bridging the gap with Tehran.
Debunking the Ally Myth
Contrary to a popular narrative pushed by some international commentators, Russia is not a formal military ally of Iran. The objectively existing reality is a sophisticated balancing act. Moscow maintains its strategic partnership with the Iranian-led Resistance Axis while simultaneously fostering deep economic ties with Israel and the Gulf Kingdoms. The UAE, in particular, remains Russia’s premier regional partner.
Conflicting Agendas
As the conflict intensifies, the primary actors hold diverging objectives sharply:
- Iran: Seeks state survival, aiming to avoid regime change or territorial fragmentation while punishing regional adversaries.
- The US and Israel: They are focused on total demilitarisation, the dismantling of nuclear programs, and potential regime change.
- The Gulf Kingdoms: Prioritise economic stability. While historically wary of escalation, the recent direct strikes have led some to reconsider whether Iran’s demilitarisation is now a necessary safeguard for their fragile, high-growth economies.
The Russian Strategy
Russia’s current alignment with Iran is born of pragmatism rather than ideology. Moscow views a stable Iranian state as essential for maintaining the regional balance of power and protecting substantial Russian investments. This stance is inherently at odds with Washington and Tel Aviv, yet it remains arguably acceptable to Gulf leaders who are desperate for a cessation of hostilities.
The willingness of GCC leaders to engage with Putin suggests a hope that Moscow can extract meaningful concessions from Tehran. While the US and Israel may demand the total surrender of Iran’s missile and nuclear capabilities, or even no-fly zones over ethnic minority regions, the Gulf states might be more inclined toward a peace of necessity.
Putin’s challenge is to draft a compromise that Tehran can swallow. If such a deal gains the backing of the Gulf Kingdoms, they could potentially leverage their cooperation with the US, specifically regarding the use of their airspace, to force a diplomatic conclusion to the war.
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