South Asia is generally thought of as a comparatively stable region whose primary problems are socio-economic development, which shouldn’t be underestimated but isn’t the same as the geopolitical turbulence that West Asia and Europe have recently experienced. That might be about to change.
From Afghanistan to Myanmar, the latter of which can be included in South Asia due to its former role in the British Raj, the entire region is bracing itself for a tumultuous 2025.
Beginning with Afghanistan, the latest tit-for-tat attacks between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan across the Durand Line bode ill for the future of their bilateral relations. Kabul never recognized the British-imposed border between Afghanistan and what later became Pakistan. It’s also accused by Islamabad of harboring the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, also known as the “Pakistani Taliban”, which is a designated terrorist group. The Afghan Taliban, meanwhile, accused Pakistan of killing civilians in its latest strike.
At the same time, Pakistan’s relations with the US are also deteriorating. The Biden Administration imposed new sanctions on its ballistic missile program, unprecedentedly targeting a state agency, while the State Department just condemned a military court’s conviction of 25 civilians. Returning US President Donald Trump’s envoy for special missions Richard Grenell is also advocating for the release of imprisoned former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan. Ties will likely become more complicated.
India’s found itself in a similar situation. A former Indian official was charged in October with organizing the attempted assassination of a Delhi-designated terrorist with dual American citizenship on US soil in summer 2023. Earlier this year, Russia gave voice to Indian suspicions that the US meddled in its general election, while some Indians believe that the US’ charges against billionaire business Gautam Adani are politically motivated. Others accuse the US of overthrowing the friendly government in Bangladesh too.
On that topic, ties between these neighbors took a huge hit after former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled her country during increasingly riotous protests over the summer. The new ruling arrangement in Bangladesh has adopted an ultra-nationalist position towards India, while India accuses it of turning a blind eye to retributive mob violence against the Hindu minority. Dhaka earlier accused Delhi of playing a role in August’s floods. This rising mutual distrust might soon have regional security consequences.
And finally, Bangladesh would do well to a closer eye on Myanmar than on India, where the Buddhist nationalist Arakan Army just seized control of their narrow border and reportedly reaffirmed its prior accusations that Dhaka backs jihadist Rohingya groups. The speed at which rebels swept across the country since the start of their 1023 offensive in October 2023, which has since led to them reportedly capturing over half of the country, raises concerns that Myanmar might soon follow in Syria’s footsteps.
As can be seen, socio-economic developmental problems are no longer South Asia’s greatest challenge, with geopolitical issues now coming to the forefront of policymakers’ attention instead. Three of them concern worsening inter-state relations between Afghanistan-Pakistan, India-Bangladesh, and Bangladesh-Myanmar, which add to exiting tensions between India-Pakistan. If there’s any geopolitical silver lining from the past year, it’s that India and China are now trying to patch up their problems.
