4 years ago

Julius Baer: Eight surprises for 2021

Christian Gattiker, Head of Research and Mathieu Racheter, Strategy Research Analyst Emerging Markets, at Julius Baer take us through eight events that would qualify as “low probability-high impact” in 2021. Thinking the unthinkable Expecting the unexpected does not only defy linguistical logic but also, is a very hard thing to do. After issuing our yearly outlook expectations, we are regularly asked about what could go wrong and what would be the most devastating things that could happen. That usually leads straight into black swan discussions. This is when we throw in that even Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who hammered the term ‘black swan’ into the consciousness of the financial community, has declared that neither the Great Financial Crisis nor the Covid-19 pandemic qualify as black swan events as these types of risks have been known for generations. We therefore settle on the term ‘low-probability, high-impact events’ hereafter to discuss the uncertainties in the months ahead. 1: An utterly dull 2021 disappoints high-flying hopes After coming out of a crisis, investors expect things to continue as least as spectacularly – for good or bad – as during the crisis. History tells a different story. After the heavy interventions of policymakers, markets tend […]