2 years ago

A General Market Overview with Julius Baer

Gulf Insider interviews Mark Matthews, Head of Research in Asia at Swiss Wealth Manager Julius Baer. Markets are on a rollercoaster ride. Where do you see this heading? Lower – and I think the roller coaster will continue. So, how much further down really is contingent on the economy? What I mean by that is do we get a recession or not? We can look back in history and see that since World War II, there were eight bear markets that were not accompanied by recessions, and there were nine that were. For the eight that were accompanied by recessions, the average decline was 24%. That’s only about 5% below where we are now. If you were to exclude the Flash Crash of 1987 which was a 37% decline, the average is only about 20%. So, if we’re not going to get a recession, I’m comfortable saying that we shouldn’t go down that much more, maybe around 5%. However, if there’s a recession, then we’re looking at a big fall in earnings. The Fed issued the biggest rate hike in 22 years. What is your view on how it will impact financial markets?  Do you think this will help in […]