There are four days left until the US presidential election and the Turkish leadership in Ankara is split over which candidate they favor. Turkish officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to Middle East Eye, believe either of the two outcomes would have a consequential impact on Turkey’s foreign policy, as well as regional and global dynamics.
Many observers in Turkey believe President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is awaiting the election results in the United States before making his own policy decisions, even over his cabinet staffing. Yet, officials have been particularly and unusually tight-lipped about their preferred candidate in this campaign period.
Erdogan’s only public outreach to either of the candidates was to Donald Trump via a phone call after the former president was shot at during a rally in Pennsylvania in July.
Media reports claimed in September that Erdogan tried to set up a meeting with Kamala Harris on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, but several Turkish officials denied it.
“Some officials have floated the idea but eventually no formal proposal had been made to Harris’ team,” a source familiar with the episode told MEE. “We kept our distance to both of the candidates and had not sought a meeting with Trump either.”
The leaders of other neighboring countries, such as the United Arab Emirates President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, opted to meet both Trump and Harris in September around the General Assembly.
Ups and downs
Turkey’s non-engagement with the candidates stems from two things, sources in Ankara say. First, Ankara is deeply confused about the possible ramifications – advantages and disadvantages – of a Trump or Harris presidency for Turkey’s relationship with the US.
Many among Erdogan’s entourage believe a Trump presidency could work well with his government because the two have a history of sharing frequent engagements, such as phone calls and meetings, providing a space for the Turkish president to make a case on issues he cares about.
For example, during one call in 2019, Trump gave Erdogan the green light to conduct a military offensive in northern Syria that allowed Ankara to seize areas and deny US-allied Syrian Kurdish armed groups uninterrupted territory across the Turkish border.
When Washington sanctioned Turkey over its purchase of Russian-made S-400 air defense systems, Trump also picked the lightest sanctions package presented to him.
Despite the ups and downs, such as Trump imposing sanctions on Turkish ministers over the imprisonment of US pastor Andrew Brunson in 2018, people in Erdogan’s entourage believe both leaders have similar mentalities and could work together for broader objectives.
