The Kremlin’s Unprecedented Description Of The Ukraine Conflict As A “War” & What It Means
Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack
This should be seen as the Kremlin’s clearest signal yet that it’ll respond to the scenario of a conventional Western intervention by striking those opposing forces in line with the international laws governing this form of conflict… Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the Argumenti I Fakty newspaper that “We are at war. Yes, it began as a special military operation, but as soon as this group was formed there, when the collective West became a participant in this on the side of Ukraine, for us it already became a war.” This is unprecedented since national security legislation prohibits the use of the word “war”, which is regarded as a mischaracterization of the way in which Russia is conducting what it refers to as a special operation.
The distinction is important regardless of whatever Western commentators claim since a special operation is a voluntarily limited military action whereas a war is only restricted by the international laws governing it (and only then if they’re abided by or externally enforced). Additionally, fighting what’s legally designated by the state as a war instead of a special operation pressures the authorities to respond accordingly to the West’s participation in this conflict, thus heightening the risk of escalation.
Peskov’s rhetorical shift came as France prepares to conventionally intervene in the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine, which German Chancellor Olaf Scholz inadvertently revealed is already an undeclared but limited hot one that’s thus far remained manageable due to each side abiding by unofficial “rules”. By formalizing and then expanding the presence of French troops in the battlespace, however, President Emmanuel Macron risks exacerbating the NATO-Russian security dilemma to uncontrollable proportions.
Peskov’s unprecedented description of the Ukrainian Conflict as a “war” should therefore be seen as the Kremlin’s clearest signal yet that it’ll respond to the scenario of a conventional Western intervention by striking those opposing forces in line with the international laws governing this form of conflict. The reason behind publicly conveying this intent is to prompt France and the other states like the UK, Poland, and the Baltic States that might also be contemplating a conventional intervention to rethink their plans.
Their decisionmakers and societies now know how Russia would respond to this provocation, and that could lead to an uncontrollable cycle of escalations that culminate in World War III by miscalculation.
